Bellevue Real EstateLocal LoveMarket StatsWindermere Bellevue Commons News August 9, 2022

Local Market Update – August 2022

The summer continues to heat up, and patient buyers are being rewarded as market shifts create a new dynamic between buyers and sellers. After years of intense competition between buyers for the most desirable listings, increasing inventory and slower price appreciation across the region has caused a pivot, with sellers competing more strongly against each other than they have in previous years.

While this may cause uncertainty in some sellers, the rise in active inventory is an indication that we are returning to a more balanced housing market as a whole. Sellers can still be very successful with their home sales, as long as they price their homes accurately and understand that they may not see the exorbitant offers that were typical a few months ago. This is a pragmatic approach, and we should see some relief in the “buyer gridlock” that had kept homeowners in place who wanted to sell and move, but simply had no place to go.

Even with the increased inventory across the Puget Sound region, we may start 2023 with low supply, high demand, and multiple offer situations. Prices are coming down largely as a result of the previous rapid price appreciation and rising interest rates. However, the Puget Sound’s underlying lack of supply and huge demand has not changed, although rates have improved. Seattle’s median price for single-family homes rose 6.4% year-over-year, from $896,500 to $954,500. That’s down slightly from the million-dollar median the city hit in April, and should help create a more inviting market for prospective buyers. The median price for condos is currently a more affordable $537,000, with 2.5 months’ of inventory.

King County as a whole is experiencing much the same phenomenon, with the median sale price for single-family homes decreasing from $938,225 in June to $890,000 last month. However, that’s still  up 2.1% from $871,000 in July 2021. Single-family homes on the Eastside currently have the most inventory of the tri-county area, with 2.5 month’s supply. The median price for single family homes has dropped to $1,420,000, down from $1,500,000 in June, but up 6.7% year-over-year. It’s important to note that this decrease in the median price is likely not due entirely to price depreciation, but from the fact that lower-priced homes made up a larger percentage of the overall sales in the area, thus lowering the median sold price. Real estate experts believe that the area continues to model a price correction based on the 2018 market, suggesting the median closed sales price will bottom out in about two months’ time around $1,300,000 or higher.

Snohomish continues to remain a more affordable area for buyers, with a median sold price for single-family homes of $770,000. Although that’s down from June, it is up a full 10% year-over-year, from $700,000 in July 2021. The area also has more active inventory—nearly two months’ supply. This, combined with the lower median price for condos of $500,000, makes it an appealing option for buyers with more constrained budgets.

The increase in active inventory across the region is not an indication of slowing demand. The majority of homes are selling in under two weeks, and prices continue to appreciate year-over-year. Builders are working diligently to meet demand, but until more projects come online, buyers and sellers will have to navigate these new market dynamics together.

If you have questions about these changes in the market or about real estate in general, please reach out to your local Windermere agent. They’re happy to help.


EASTSIDE

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KING COUNTY

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SEATTLE

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SNOHOMISH COUNTY

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This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com.

Bellevue NewsBellevue Real EstateMarket Stats August 1, 2022

Gardner Report Q2 2022

The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The most recent employment data (from May) showed that all but 2,800 of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. More than eight of the counties contained in this report show employment levels higher than they were before COVID-19 hit. The regional unemployment rate fell to 4.5% from 5.2% in March, with total unemployment back to pre-pandemic levels. For the time being, the local economy appears to be in pretty good shape. Though some are suggesting we are about to enter a recession, I am not seeing it in the numbers given rising employment and solid income growth.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES

In the second quarter of 2022, 23,005 homes sold, representing a drop of 11% from the same period a year ago, but up by a significant 52% from the first quarter of this year.

Sales rose in Grays Harbor County compared to a year ago but fell across the balance of the region. The spring market, however, was very robust, likely due to growing inventory levels and buyers trying to get ahead of rising mortgage rates.

Second quarter growth in listing activity was palpable: 175% more homes were listed than during the first quarter and 61.98% more than a year ago.

Pending sales outpaced listings by a factor of 3:1. This is down from the prior year but only because of the additional supply that came to market.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES

Even in the face of rising mortgage rates, home prices continue to rise at a well-above-average pace, with average prices up 13.3% year over year to $830,941.

I have been watching list prices as they are a leading indicator of the health of the housing market. Thus far, despite rising mortgage rates and inventory levels, sellers remain confident. This is reflected in rising median list prices in all but three counties compared to the previous quarter. They were lower in San Juan, Island, and Jefferson counties.

Prices rose by double digits in all but four counties. Snohomish, Grays Harbor, Mason, and Thurston counties saw significant growth.

List prices and supply are both trending higher, but this has yet to slow price growth significantly. I believe we will see the pace of appreciation start to slow, but not yet.

DAYS ON MARKET

It took an average of 16 days for a home to go pending in the second quarter of the year. This was 2 fewer days than in the same quarter of 2021, and 9 fewer days than in the first quarter.

Snohomish, King, and Pierce counties were, again, the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of between 8 and 10 days to sell. Compared to a year ago, average market time dropped the most in San Juan County, where it took 26 fewer days for a seller to find a buyer.

All but six counties saw average time on market drop from the same period a year ago. The markets where it took longer to sell a home saw the length of time increase only marginally.

Compared to the first quarter of this year, average market time fell across the board. Demand remains very strong.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The economy remains buoyant, which is an important factor when it comes to the regional housing market, particularly as it affects buyers. Even though the number of homes that came to market has jumped significantly, which should favor those looking for a new home, demand is still robust, and the market remains competitive.

Much to the disappointment of buyers, rising listing prices suggest that sellers are clearly still confident even as financing costs continue to increase. While the pace of price growth is slowing, sellers are still generally in control. As such, I have moved the needle a little more in the direction of sellers. Until we see list-price growth and home sales slow significantly, we will not reach a balanced market.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

 

This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog.

Bellevue Real EstateLocal LoveMarket StatsWindermere Bellevue Commons News July 12, 2022

Local Market Update – July 2022

Cooler temperatures and a cooler regional real estate market have been this summer’s hallmark thus far. After months of blazing hot sales and a breakneck pace, buyers are finally seeing inventory levels accelerate and price gains slow. With inspection and financing contingencies once again becoming the norm, the region may at last be shifting toward a more balanced market.

Area home prices were down across the board last month. The median sold price for King County single-family homes dropped to $938,225, slightly lower than May’s near million-dollar price ($998,888). Year-over-year, however, King County prices were still up by 9%, despite the higher 1.5 months of available inventory.

Seattle mirrored the county’s trend, with the median price dropping from $1,025,500 in May to an even $1,000,000 in June. This price was still up 12% year-over-year, indicating continued demand for housing in the city.

Real estate experts have pointed out that areas that saw the greatest appreciation earlier this year will likely see a more significant dip in prices as the market rebalances. The Eastside market bore out this theory in June as the median sold price for single-family homes was $1,500,000 — down almost $100k from May’s median price of $1,590,000. That said, last month’s Eastside median sold prices were still up over June 2021, increasing 10% year-over-year in the residential market and 12% in the condo market. And with two months’ supply of homes currently listed, Eastside buyers have significantly more options to choose from than they would have had earlier in the year.

Snohomish County — long a refuge for buyers seeking more bang for their buck — followed a similar trend. The median sold price for single-family homes dropped to a more attainable $799,950, down from May but still up 11% year-over-year. Snohomish County condo prices dipped in June as well, with the median sold price of $500,000 down 9% from May and up a meager 1.6% from June of last year.

While these recent price dips may cause concern for some sellers, local real estate experts reiterate that this is a necessary step toward a more balanced market. “The increase in listings has started to slow the rabid pace of price gains that we’ve experienced,” said Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist. “This is a good thing, not a cause for concern.”

Other factors influencing the summer real estate market are higher mortgage rates, higher post-pandemic rates of travel, and typical seasonal buyer patterns. With graduations occurring and school years finishing up, many potential buyers are scratching their itch for travel and family time, putting off their home search until a little later in the year.

For sellers looking to make the most of the current market, flexibility is key. Pricing their home correctly from the get-go and being willing to negotiate with buyers on terms can still result in a top-of-market sale, albeit one in which multiple offers are less expected.

If you have questions about real estate opportunities in the current market, please reach out to your Windermere broker for additional insights and analysis.


EASTSIDE

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KING COUNTY

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SEATTLE

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SNOHOMISH COUNTY

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This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com.

Bellevue Real EstateLocal LoveMarket StatsWindermere Bellevue Commons News June 9, 2022

Local Market Update – June 2022

The tides of our local real estate market may at last be shifting, as buyers find relief in increasing inventory and the frenetic pace of sales slows noticeably. At the end of May, inventory across the 26 counties served by the Northwest MLS had increased by 59%, with 8,798 active listings in the database, compared to 5,533 active listings just a year ago. While this shift may cause concern from some who anticipate a drop in the market, Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner had this to say: “What’s more likely to occur is that the additional supply will lead us toward a more balanced market, which after years of such lopsided conditions, is much needed.”

While inventory has increased, the meteoric price hikes seen in this first part of 2022 – including again in May’s closed sales – is expected to slow dramatically in the next half of the year. Seattle saw a historic first in April, with the median sold price for a single-family home topping $1 million for the first time. May home sales continued that trend, with the median sold price inching up to $1,025,500, which is a 12% increase from $919,000 in May 2021. King County as a whole mirrored this trend, with the median price of single-family homes reaching $998,888 in May, up from $995,000 in April and up 14.8% from last May’s median price of $869,975.

May closings reveal that the Eastside and Snohomish County didn’t follow this same pattern, instead experiencing a much-needed cooling of prices. On the Eastside, the median sold price for single-family homes fell from $1,722,500 in April to $1,590,000 in May. While last month’s median price is the lowest since January of this year, it was still up 22% year-over-year. The Eastside saw an increase in the percentage of homes that had a price change before selling, hitting 10% in May — double that of April. This is likely due to Eastside sellers needing to adjust their price expectations. While a majority of listings in the area — about 66% — still sold over list price last month, a full month of inventory and a 403% increase in active inventory on the Eastside from February to May means that buyers have more choice and agency than they’ve had in some time. Homes are still selling, but multiple offers are far fewer and sellers are more likely than before to accept an offer written with contingencies.

Snohomish County also saw a shift in May, likely due to the combination of increasing inventory running headfirst into decreasing buyer budgets thanks to rising mortgage rates. With .85 months of inventory, prices reflected this, with the median sold price for single-family homes falling slightly to $815,000 last month, down from $839,298 in April. However, a majority of homes sold for over list price and quite quickly, averaging less than two weeks on the market. It’s worth noting that these statistics largely reflect home sales that went under contract in prior months when competition was at its fiercest. The median sold price for Snohomish County condos dropped just slightly to $545,000 last month, down from $550,000 in April. With only two weeks of inventory on hand, the county’s condo market is likely to remain competitive for a while.

Falling prices in the Puget Sound region may have caused concern for some, but most analysts see this as a necessary and long-overdue price correction. Prices for single-family homes (excluding condos) in King County rose from $775,000 in January to a whopping $995,000 in April, a change of $220,000 in only four months, or 28.4%. Last month, the Eastside saw prices decrease by only 8%, and this was likely only because prices had previously risen so astronomically in the area. Neighborhoods that saw the highest appreciation will likely experience a sharper correction, but this may serve to help some previously unlucky buyers re-enter the market and finally find success.

If you have questions about pricing trends in your neighborhood, or how to make the most of your purchase or sale, please reach out to your local Windermere broker to see how they can help.


EASTSIDE

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KING COUNTY

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SEATTLE

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SNOHOMISH COUNTY

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This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com.

Bellevue Real EstateLocal LoveMarket StatsWindermere Bellevue Commons News May 9, 2022

Local Market Update – May 2022

After a long stint of suppressed housing inventory across our region, buyers may at last have more options as the supply of available homes ticks up ahead of the summer market. The month-over-month increase in inventory has been as much as 50% in some areas, offering renewed opportunities for those buyers who are not dissuaded by high home prices and rising mortgage rates.

The Eastside appears to have experienced the most dramatic inventory growth, with .79 months of available single-family homes last month compared to .46 in March. Seattle increased slightly to .59 months of inventory, while Snohomish also had a notable increase up to .67 months of inventory compared to .46 in March.

The increase in supply is likely occurring because rising home prices and mortgage rates have put a slight damper on sales in the area. Last month, the median sold price for a single-family home in Seattle surpassed $1 million for the first time—landing at a historic $1,019,950. This is up 16.6% year-over-year from $875,000 in April 2021. The median price for single-family homes on the Eastside last month was an eye-watering $1,722,500, with 80% of homes selling over list price. Although inventory has increased in the area, Eastside homes are still selling quickly, with 96% of listings selling in under two weeks. King County as a whole also saw prices increase, with the median sold price for single-family homes reaching $995,000, up from $830,000 a year ago.

Snohomish County home prices have kept pace with the market, with the median sold price for a single-family home reaching $839,298. That’s an increase of 24.3% year-over-year from $675,000 in April 2021. This is likely due to increased demand from buyers who can’t compete in the intense Seattle and Eastside market, seeking more bang for their buck in the relatively more affordable Snohomish County market.

Affordability issues have also trickled into the condominium market, as some prospective homebuyers divert from the single-family market to condos. Eastside condo prices have increased 29.7% year-over-year to $674,444 last month from $520,000 in April 2021. In Snohomish County, the median sold price for condos rose to $550,000 year-over-year from $432,250 last year. That’s an increase of 27.2%.

Despite rising home prices and heftier mortgage rates, many buyers are still eager to take advantage of the financial benefits of homeownership. According to Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, “Owning real estate is a hedge against rising inflation. Homeowners with a fixed rate mortgage will always have the same monthly payment, even as other costs rise.”

If you have questions about how to find the opportunities presented by today’s market, please don’t hesitate to connect with your Windermere broker. They’ll answer based on a real-time analysis of the market and a nuanced consideration of your specific needs and goals.


EASTSIDE

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KING COUNTY

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SEATTLE

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SNOHOMISH COUNTY

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This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com.

Bellevue NewsBellevue Real EstateMarket Stats April 28, 2022

Gardner Report Q1 2022

 

The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The post-COVID job recovery continues. Though data showed the number of jobs dropped in January, February saw gains that almost offset the jobs lost the prior month. As of February (March data is not yet available), the region had recovered all but 47,000 of the more than 300,000 jobs lost due to the pandemic. Of note is that employment levels in Grays Harbor, Thurston, San Juan, and Clallam counties are now above their pre-pandemic levels. In February, the regional unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 3.7% in December. Although this may be disconcerting, an improving economy has led more unemployed persons to start looking for a job, which has pushed the jobless rate higher. I expect the regional economy to continue expanding as we move into the spring and summer, with a full job recovery not far away.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES

❱ In the first quarter of 2022, 15,134 homes sold, representing a drop of 5.8% from the same period a year ago, and down 31.7% from the fourth quarter.

❱ Yet again, supply-side constraints limited sales. Every county except Snohomish showed lower inventory levels than a year ago.

❱ Sales grew in five counties across the region but were lower across the balance of the counties contained in this report. Compared to the fourth quarter, sales were lower across all market areas.

❱ The ratio of pending sales (demand) to active listings (supply) showed pending sales outpacing listings by a factor of 6.7. Clearly, the significant jump in mortgage rates in the first quarter has not yet impacted demand. Rather it appears to have stimulated buyers partly due to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)!

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES

❱ Although financing costs have jumped, this has yet to prove to be an obstacle to buyers, as prices rose 16.4% year-over-year to an average of $738,152. Naturally, there is a lag between rates rising and any impact on market prices. It will be interesting to see what, if any, effect this has in the next quarter’s report.

❱ Compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was again strongest in San Juan County, but all markets saw prices rising more than 10% from a year ago.

❱ Relative to the final quarter of 2021, all but Kitsap (-2.7%), Mason (-1.5%), Skagit (-1.8%), Jefferson (-6.3%), and Clallam (-0.1%) counties saw home prices rise.

❱ The market remains supply starved. While increases in “new” listings suggest that more choice is coming to market, it remains insufficient to meet demand.

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ It took an average of 25 days for a home to go pending in the first quarter of 2022. This was 4 fewer days than in the same quarter of 2020, but 2 days more than in the fourth quarter of 2021.

❱ Snohomish, King, and Pierce counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 11 to 15 days to sell. The greatest drop in market time compared to a year ago was in San Juan County, where it took 23 fewer days for homes to sell.

❱ All but five counties saw average time on market drop from the same period a year ago, but the markets where it took longer to sell a home saw the length of time increase only marginally.

❱ Quarter over quarter, market time dropped in Snohomish, King, and Pierce counties. Jefferson and Clallam counties also saw modest improvement. In the balance of the region the length of time a home was on the market rose, but seasonality undoubtedly played a part.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The numbers have yet to indicate that demand is waning amid rising interest rates, but this is sure to become a greater factor as we move into the spring. A leading indicator I pay attention to is changes to list prices and, in most counties, these continue to increase. This suggests that sellers remain confident they will be able to find a buyer even in the face of higher borrowing costs. If this pace of increase starts to soften, it may be an indication of an inflection point, but it does not appear to be that way yet.

Given all the factors discussed above, I have decided to leave the needle in the same position as the last quarter. The market still heavily favors sellers, but if rates rise much further, headwinds will likely increase.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

 

This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog.

Bellevue Real EstateLocal LoveMarket StatsWindermere Bellevue Commons News April 14, 2022

Local Market Update – April 2022

The spring market continues its frenzied pace, with soaring prices and stiff competition testing the resolve of buyers. Despite these obstacles and rising mortgage rates, inventory remains low across King County, as pending sales keep pace with new listings, demonstrating a strong demand from buyers.

This demand has factored into the way sellers are approaching the market. Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner notes that median listing prices continue to rise, saying “this suggests that sellers remain quite bullish when it comes to pricing their homes.”

This was certainly true in March on the Eastside, where the median closed sale price for single-family homes was $1,700,000, an all-time high. This was up 26% year-over-year, and slightly up from February, when the median was $1,697,500. In Seattle, the median price for single-family homes achieved an all-time high of $970,000, up 18% year-over-year. Snohomish County continues to feel the impact of this voracious demand, with a median closed sale price of $1,298,000 for single-family homes — that’s an increase of 38.1% year-over-year.

Not only are asking prices increasing across the region, but many homes are selling for well over list price. On the Eastside, a staggering 85% of closed sales in March 2022 sold for more than the list price. Overall, that’s down from an all-time record last month of 87%, but tied for the second-highest month ever with April 2021. Of the Eastside homes that sold over asking last month, the median difference was 21% over asking, and they spent an average of just 4 days on the market.

Seattle is experiencing a similar pattern, with 71% of the closed sales in March going over the list price. This is a high for Seattle; in March and April of 2018, 63% and 68% of listings closed over asking, respectively. Last month, the Seattle listings that sold over list price sold for a median of 15% over the list price, and were on the market for 5 days.

In Snohomish County, homes that sold over list price went for a median of 21% over the asking price.

With these conditions, many buyers are looking to condos as a more affordable way to break into the market. Consequently, condo prices have also seen a year-over-year increase. In King County, condos remain relatively more affordable, with a median price of $540,000 in March 2022. That’s up from $470,000 in March 2021, a 14.9% increase. Snohomish County has seen a more dramatic increase, as the median condo price in March 2022 was $555,000 — up 33.1% year-over-year, from $417,000 in March 2021.

Matthew Gardner expects mortgage rates to continue trending higher in the coming months, but so far he says there’s nothing to be too concerned about, as the interest rates have not yet caused sales to taper off. Savvy sellers can still easily benefit from the opportunities presented by this market, and although rates are higher, buyers can finance their home purchase with rates still far lower that the historical norm.

If you’re looking for knowledgeable advice as you consider when might be your best time to enter the market, whether as a buyer or a seller, please connect with your Windermere broker. They’ll give you their professional insight to help you make the best decisions possible.


EASTSIDE

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KING COUNTY

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SEATTLE

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SNOHOMISH COUNTY

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This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com.

Bellevue Real EstateLocal LoveMarket StatsWindermere Bellevue Commons News March 10, 2022

Local Market Update – March 2022

As we head into the traditionally busy spring season for homebuying, the market seems to be keeping up its intense pace, with low inventory across the board and multiple offers the norm. A marginal increase in listings across King and Snohomish counties has done little to counter fierce buyer demand, with certain areas on the Eastside virtually unable to sustain new inventory. With these trends likely to continue, buyers will need to be aggressive and ready to compete.

Prices continue to rise across Seattle and the Eastside, with the median sold price for single-family homes on the Eastside increasing to an eye-watering $1,697,500 in February — a 34% year-over-year increase. Seattle saw a 16% year-over-year increase last month, with a median sold price of $925,000 for single-family homes. These median home prices for the Eastside and Seattle were all-time record highs.

Fierce competition on the Eastside last month drove price increases, with 87% of  homes in the area closing above list price and the median sold price coming in at a whopping 23% over list. At the start of this month the Eastside had just under two weeks of inventory, and 94% of last month’s listings sold in under two weeks. The pace of home sales in Seattle was almost as hot, with 86% of homes selling in two weeks or less.

Snohomish County saw a year-over-year price increase of 19% in February, with a median sold price of $745,725 for single-family homes, a record-high for the area as well. The continuation of remote and flexible work options continues to encourage buyers to purchase in the area, and by month’s end Snohomish County inventory had dropped to less than two weeks’ supply.

The competition and rising prices have some buyers torn between jumping into the market while they still can, or waiting to see if a price correction will occur within the foreseeable future. The last correction occurred in 2018; in the three years from May 2015 to May 2018 King County home prices rose 51% from $480,942 to $726,275. During the same time, interest rates increased from 3.84% to 4.59%. Prices then dropped 16% from $726,275 to $610,000 and took 18 months to rise above $726,275 again. While this context is helpful, it’s also extremely difficult to predict when and if a price correction will occur in the near future.

Amid rising concerns over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its impact on the American economy, many homebuyers are wondering if mortgage rates — which have generally been rising since the beginning of the year — will be affected. Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, tied the beginning of the war to a short-term drop in rates. “In general, when there’s any sort of global or national geopolitical event, investors tend to gravitate to safety, and this invariably means a shift out of equities and into bonds. So at face value Russia was actually responsible for the tiny drop in rates we saw immediately following the invasion, and also the more significant drop we saw last week when the market saw the biggest two-day drop in rates in over a decade.”

Nonetheless, Gardner said that according to his model, there is actually likely to be a “significant jump” in rates over the first two quarters, though these increases will slow in the second half of the year.

If you’re looking for additional insight and extra support as you consider whether now is the right time to buy or sell a home, please feel free to reach out. We’re here to help you make the best decisions as you navigate the real estate market, today or any time in the future.

 


EASTSIDE

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KING COUNTY

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SEATTLE

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SNOHOMISH COUNTY

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This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com.

Bellevue Real EstateLocal LoveMarket StatsWindermere Bellevue Commons News February 10, 2022

Local Market Update – February 2022

The local market in January looked a bit like the calm before the storm. Home prices took a pause from the frantic surges of last year, but if the sales we’ve seen in the last few weeks are any indication, the market looks like it’s heating up again. Inventory inched up in January, but remains far short of buyer demand. Homes are selling fast, and for well over asking price. Expect this spring, traditionally the busiest season of the year for home sales, to be hotter than ever.

Concerns about future mortgage interest hikes appear to have added fuel to an already overheated market, further depleting already meager inventory. The number of homes for sale was lower than any January on record, according to Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s chief economist. There were 59% fewer homes on the market in King County than the same time last year. Snohomish County’s inventory was down 35%. Based on current demand, it would take less than two weeks to sell all the properties on the market in both counties. Buyers competing for scant inventory snapped up available homes quickly. In King County, 72%  of the homes sold in January were on the market less than two weeks. On the Eastside, 81% of homes sold in less than two weeks, as did 61% of homes in Seattle, and 76% of homes in Snohomish County.

Homes prices continued to trend upward compared to the same time last year. In January, the median price of a single-family home in King County rose 7% year-over-year to $775,000. Home prices on the Eastside jumped 32% over a year ago to $1,515,000, virtually unchanged from the all-time high of $1,529,500 set in December. With 71% of homes on the Eastside selling for over asking price, the market is expected to stay very competitive. Prices in Seattle have been fairly level for the past few months. The January median home price of $790,000 is flat compared to a year ago. In Snohomish County, the $715,000 median home price was up 19% over the prior year. While January’s statistics (which reflect sales that closed in December) hinted that the market may be easing off, the housing activity we’re seeing today indicates that buyers are stepping on the gas. Expect even more competition for homes in the coming months.

Despite the pandemic and remote work, large companies continue to hire new workers and invest in large office projects  in the area. Matthew Gardner weighed in on how he sees that affecting the housing market. “One of the biggest questions for 2022 is how the market will be further impacted by the work-from-home paradigm given that many companies have postponed their long-term WFH plans. This is likely holding back sellers during a time when we desperately need additional inventory, as well as buyers who are concerned about rising mortgage rates.” Gardner expects more sellers will list their homes and more buyers will start their searches once they know how often they need to commute to work, which may result in a busier spring market than expected.

If your plans for 2022 include buying or selling a house, we’re here to help. Get in touch and we can get started.

 


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KING COUNTY

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SEATTLE

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SNOHOMISH COUNTY

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This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com.

Bellevue NewsBellevue Real EstateMarket Stats January 31, 2022

Gardner Report Q4 2021

 

The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Just when we thought COVID was starting to pull back, the Omicron variant made its presence known. It is still too early to suggest that this has affected the region’s economic recovery—we won’t likely know for certain until we get more job data. I remain hopeful that this latest spike in infections will not have too much of an impact, but only time will tell. To date, the region has recovered all but 51,000 of the 297,000 jobs that were lost due to the pandemic. Some of the region’s smaller counties, including Grays Harbor, Cowlitz, Thurston, San Juan, and Clallam, have seen a full job recovery. The most recent data (November) shows the regional unemployment rate at a very respectable 3.3%, which is below the pre-pandemic low of 3.7%. The lowest unemployment rates were in King and San Juan Counties, where 2.9% of the labor force was out of work. The highest rate was in Grays Harbor County, which registered 5.1%. I still expect to see a full job recovery by this summer. However, there is a growing labor shortage holding the area back. Hopefully, this will change, but some industry sectors—especially hospitality—continue to find it hard to attract workers.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES

❱ In the final quarter of the year, 22,161 homes sold, representing a drop of 5.2% compared to the same period in 2020 and down 18.8% from the third quarter.

❱ The reason there were lower year-over-year sales is simply because the number of homes for sale was down more than 30%. The drop between third and fourth quarters is likely due to seasonality changes in the market.

❱ Although home sales were lower in most markets, there was a significant uptick in Grays Harbor and Thurston counties. The number of homes sold dropped across the board compared to the third quarter.

❱ The ratio of pending sales (demand) to active listings (supply) showed sales outpacing listings by a factor of 5.2. The market is supply starved and unfortunately, it’s unlikely enough homes will be listed this spring to satisfy demand.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES

❱ Home prices rose 15.1% compared to a year ago, with an average sale price of $711,008. This was 2.1% lower than in the third quarter of 2021.

❱ When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in San Juan and Jefferson counties. All but two markets saw prices rise more than 10% from a year ago.

❱ Relative to the third quarter, every county except Island (-8.6%), Mason (-5.2%), Lewis (-2.9%), King (-2.1%), Cowlitz (-1.7%), and Kitsap (-0.9%) saw sale prices rise.

❱ Mortgage rates rose more than .2% between the third and fourth quarters, which may have impacted prices. Affordability constraints continue to grow, which is also likely to have played a part in slowing gains.

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ It took an average of 23 days for homes to sell in the final quarter of 2021. This was 8 fewer days than in the same quarter of 2020, but 6 more days than in the third quarter of last year.

❱ Snohomish, Thurston, King, and Kitsap counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of between 13 and 16 days to sell. The greatest drop in market time compared to a year ago was in San Juan County, where it took 33 fewer days for a seller to find a buyer.

❱ All counties contained in this report saw the average time on market drop from the same period a year ago. Every county except Whatcom saw market time rise compared to the third quarter.

❱ Longer days on market might suggest that things are starting to slow, but I don’t actually think this is the case. I believe buyers are being a little more selective before making offers, and many may be waiting in the hope that supply levels will improve in the spring.

CONCLUSIONS

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Western Washington.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The housing market remains in a state of imbalance, but, as I look at the data, I believe the frenetic pace of sales and price appreciation may start to soften in 2022.

This will likely be due to financing costs and affordability acting as headwinds to price growth. Mortgage rates have started to rise again, and I have forecasted them to reach 3.7% by fourth quarter. This alone will slow price growth as affordability in many areas declines.

One thing that remains unknown that could have a significant impact on the market is long-term work-from-home policies. Many businesses have not yet determined their plans for remote working, but once they do, potential home buyers who have been waiting to see how frequently they have to commute to work could immediately start their search. In addition to boosting sales, this could add inventory to the market as well.

All things considered, I am moving the needle just a notch toward buyers. However, as you can see, we are still in a market that heavily favors home sellers.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

 

This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog.